Wow, Dan, you've gone more philosophically materialist than me at my most extreme after I left.
So we are talking about a philosophical question - what is consciousness? Dan posits that this question dictates the answer to the free will question, and he may be right.
Dan seems to think (please check me, Dan) that life is a mechanistic process that can be likened to a physics problem, like balls on a pool table, and if you know the initial states and you know the properties of the balls and you control the vector (momentum + direction) of a new ball on the table, you can predict where all the balls end up. In this model, consciousness and "self" are side effects - noise in the neurons.
A field that might affect your outlook here, Dan, is chaos theory. It still keeps the conversation very clinical and, in my mind, "two-dimensional", but it will go into detail on unpredictable scientific events. I would also suggest Ken Wilber's A Brief History of Everything (or, if you're a big reader, the full-length version: Sex, Ecology, Spirituality.
So, Dan, without addressing your question directly, I'm curious - do you live your life as if you have no free will?